| | 微软研究院的吉姆.格瑞归纳了未来信息技术发展的十二个根本问题，当前的现实和文章提出的目标距离还很远，这也就表明信息技术离“成熟”还很远。应该看到，目前的技术与文中提出的目标的差距不仅仅是量的区别，因为用现有技术简单延伸是无法实现这些目标的，必须在技术上有大的突破性进展。这倒正好说明了量变和质变的关系。
这十二个问题简而言之可以表述为：
1. Scalability: Devise a software and hardware architecture that scales up by a factor of 106 That is, an application’s storage and processing capacity can automatically grow by a factor of a million, doing jobs faster (l06x speedup) or doing larger jobs in the same time (1O6x scaleup), just by adding more resources.
可伸缩性：创造一种软件和硬件的体系结构,可以扩展一百万倍。即：某个具体应用的存储和处理能力可以通过添加资源而自动地提高一百万倍，也就是说处理同一问题速度提高一百万倍或用同样的时间可以处理规模扩大一百万倍的问题。（这里，“自动地”非常重要，也就是说除了加入资源，用户用不着做任何其他干预—如重新编程，对系统配置进行调整……）
2. The Turing Test: Build a computer system that wins the imitation game at least 30% of the time.
图灵测试：建造在模仿游戏中获胜概率至少为30%的计算机系统。
(THE TURING TEST. The Turing Test is based on the Imitation Game, played by three people. In the imitation game, a man, a woman, and a judge are in three separate rooms. The three cannot see one another, so they communicate via e-mail. The judge questions them for five minutes, trying to discover which of the two is the man and which is the woman. This would be very easy, except that the man lies and pretends to be a woman. The woman tries to help the judge find the truth. If the man is a really good impersonator, he might fool the judge 50% of the time. In practice, it seems the judge is right about 70% of the time.
Now, the Turning Test replaces the man with a computer pretending to be a woman. If the computer can fool the judge 30% of the time, it passes the Turing Test.
图灵测试是基于模仿游戏的测试。模仿游戏由三个人参加：一位男士，一位女士和一个裁判。他们分处于三间房子里，彼此不能见面，只能通过电子邮件互相通信。裁判对其余两位提问五分钟，以确定其中哪一位是男士，哪一位是女士。这本来应该很容易，除非男士说谎假装女士。在游戏里女士要力图帮助裁判找出真相。如果男士善于模仿他也许有50%的机会瞒过裁判。但在实际游戏里，好像裁判做出正确判断的概率是70%。
在图灵测试里，由计算机代替男士来假装女士。如果计算机能在30%的时间里瞒过裁判，就算其通过了图灵测试）
3. Speech to text: Hear as well as a native speaker.
听写：应该和人听写母语水平相当 4. Text to speech: Speak as well as a native speaker.
诵读文本：应该和人诵读母语文本的水平相当
5. See as well as a person: Recognize objects and motion.
具有人类一样的视觉能力：能像人那样识别目标和运动状态
6. Personal Memex: Record everything a person sees and hears, and quickly retrieve any item on request.
具有人一样的记忆：记录下一个人看到和听到的一切，而且可以按照要求迅速提取每个纪录。
7. World Memex: Build a system that given a text corpus, can answer questions about the text and summarize the text as precisely and quickly as a human expert in that field. Do the same for music, images, art, and cinema.
智能资料存储处理系统：建立一个系统，对于一个给定的文本语料库，任何关于所存储的文本的问题都可以回答，可以对文本库任何一段文本做出摘要，回答和摘要的准确程度和速度与该领域的专家相当。对于音乐、图像、艺术作品及视频节目也达到这样的标准。
8. Telepresence: Simulate being some other place retrospectively as an observer (Teleoberserver): hear and see as well as actually being there, and as well as a participant. Simulate being some other place as a participant (Telepresent): interacting with others and with the environment as though you are actually there.
远程临场感：模拟另一个地方的场景使你感觉就好像是一个在现场的观察者那样听见和看见现场发生的一切（远程观察）；模拟你出席另一地点的活动，就好像你在现场一样，与在现场的人士互相交流（远程参与）。
9. Trouble-Free Systems: Build a system used by millions of people each day and yet administered and managed by a single part-time person.
无故障系统：建造一个系统，每天可供上百万人使用，而只需要一个非全时工作人员管理。
10. Secure System: Assure that the system of problem 9 services only authorized users, service cannot be denied by unauthorized users, and information cannot be stolen (and prove it.)
具有安全性的系统：保证在刚才第9项中提出的系统只向得到授权的人士提供服务;任何未得到授权的人士都无法使系统中断业务；存储于系统中的信息不会被窃取（而且以上各项性能必须得到证明）
11. AlwavsUp: Assure that the system is unavailable for less than one second per hundred years-eight 9’ s of availability (and prove it).
随时可用：保证该系统在每一百年内中断工作的时间不超过1秒—即可用度达到八个九（而且这一指标必须得到证明）
12. Automatic Programmer: Devise a specification language or user interface that:
(a) makes it easy for people to express designs (1 ,000x easier),
(b) computers can compile, and
(c) can describe all applications (is complete).
The system should reason about application, asking questions about exception cases and incomplete specification. But it should not be onerous to use.
自动编程：建造一种需求描述语言或用户界面，具有如下功能：
（a） 使人可以很容易地表述其设计（比现有语言容易1000倍）；
（b） 计算机可以直接编译；
（c） 可以描述任何应用（且具有完备性）
系统应该能对具体应用需求进行推理，对例外情况和不完备需求能提出疑问。但不能因此使使用变得困难 | |
